Dallas at Philadelphia

This line is simply too inflated. Let's not forget that Dallas only beat this 76ers team by 3 points in Dallas earlier this season. Yes, I realize that the Sixers traded Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes. But Dallas is likely to come in here very confident, and at some point the spread becomes too large. Mavs' coach Rick Carlisle is just 30-55 ATS in his coaching career as a double-digit favorite. And, the Mavs are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games vs. bad teams (teams like Philly with a home winning percentage of less than .400). Take the points in this one.