Dallas at New Orleans

The Mavs got knocked out early from the playoffs last season and this year, with not quite as good a team, they are on their way to getting bounced again. It has been their inability to win against the good teams on the road that has led to their playoff demise. The Mavs are just 3-18 SU on the road vs playoff teams since December 1st and 6-15 ATS. A team with an overall average of over 100 ppg is scoring just 95.3 ppg vs these teams, and a team that allowed just 95.9 ppg is allowing 102.8 ppg. New Orleans has been bombing playoff teams during the season at home and has continued vs Dallas in this series. The Hornets are now 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS at home vs playoff teams. The Hornets have been a very dominating team at home, where they have gone 31-12-2 ATS as a favorite and 45-22 ATS in their last 67. The Mavs, as we have pointed out, just can't defend the good teams. The result has been 13 of 16 OVERs on the road vs a team with a winning home record, and 11 of their last 12 have gone OVER when they are a dog. The Hornets have played 35-16 to the OVER in their last 51 vs a team with a losing road record. Eight of the Hornets last ten wins at home vs playoff teams have come by double-digits, and they are scoring 106 ppg in their last 11 at home vs teams in the playoffs. We like the Hornets by double-digits, and the OVER in this one.