Dallas at New Orleans

Much as we saw the better team prevail in two straight home games in the Cleveland-Washington series, we see the Hornets prevailing yet again tonight in game two. They are just better than Dallas. While many picked this series as the most likely for an upset, the Hornets still don't get enough respect. This team is 57-26 and they have one of the top 3 point guards in the league. Yet, they continue to get disrespected as a team that might make an early exit. Paul dominated in game one putting up 35 points and dishing 10 assists and he should again produce here. Jitters led to a 12-point halftime deficit but the Hornets showed how good they are, outscoring the Mavs by 24 in the second half. People still expect Dallas to make some magic transition but the fact remains that they are 17-25 (18-24 ATS) on the road this season. Why is this going to change? New Orleans in contrast is 31-11 at home (27-15 ATS). Why is this line just 3.5? And let's not forget that the Mavs are just 15-26 ATS the past two seasons on the road vs. winning teams. They are 5-14 ATS this season on the road vs. good free-throw shooting teams (those making 76%+). They are 13-22 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams (those averaging triple figures). They are 0-8 ATS this season vs. teams that handle the ball well (averaging under 13 turnovers per game) so it's no wonder they would struggle against the Paul-led Hornets. Let's face it, when it comes to playing top opponents, the Mavericks just aren't very good. We expect this to be a low-scoring game early-on as well, just as the first game played out (92 first-half points). Defensive intensity naturally goes up in the playoffs. Dallas is 21-7 UNDER in the first half this season to a line between 95 and 100. New Orleans this season is 20-9 UNDER in the first half when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 14-4 UNDER in first half in their last 18 home games! We like the Hornets to win and cover and for the game to go UNDER in the first half.