Dallas at Miami

The Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat will do battle in game one to decide the NBA Championship. The Heat acquired LeBron James and Chris Bosh to team with Dwayne Wade in the off-season, and the only way this season will be a success is if they cut down the nets after this series. They are now four wins away from that goal. The Heat took awhile to get things going with their new cast of all-stars starting the season at 9-8. They went on to have a pair of slumps going 1-5 and 1-6 during the season, but otherwise have been virtually unbeatable at an amazing 59-8. Dallas has had success all season long as well, but they face an extremely tough challenge here in game one. They are on the road against a very motivated team that is playing at their peak. They are facing a team with three super stars. The Mavericks have Dirk, but Miami matches that with LeBron. Beyond those two who are both playing at amazing (but roughly equal) levels, Miami has Wade and Bosh and Dallas doesn't have anyone to match them. Dallas is much deeper, but that shouldn't matter (barring injury). Miami will play the Big Three massive minutes and when they are on the court, the Heat have the advantage. There is a chance you could see LeBron James defending Nowitski at key moments as well. The fact that around 60% of the bets are on Dallas here demonstrates that the line value on them that was there in the early rounds is probably gone. Since round two began, the Heat is 6-0 ATS as a favorite in the playoffs, and 8-0 SU at home in all playoffs games, winning by 6 points or more every time out. Defense wins Championships in the NBA Finals. The better defense here is clearly the Heat and I think they take game one at home. The Heat’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs. They had one lapse against Chicago as they allowed 103 points, but in their other 14 games no team scored more than 97, and that includes a pair of overtime games. The Mavs have shaved 3.5 ppg from their points allowed in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Miami has done even better, having allowed just 88.3 in the playoffs (over 6 ppg better than the regular season). The last 20 years has seen championship series games ride in at 60% to the UNDER, including seven of the last eight game ones. Take Miami to cover and play the UNDER.