Dallas at Miami

The Miami Heat took a 1-0 series lead on Tuesday, rallying from an 8-point deficit early in the third quarter to beat the Mavericks by 8. Dallas made their runs, but in the end they (like the Celtics and Thunder before them), were outmatched in crunch time. I don't see anything different happening here, especially with Dallas' only star tearing a tendon in his hand in the four quarter of game one. Dirk and LeBron are a virtual wash in this series, but once you get beyond those two superstars, the Heat have a distinct advantage with Wade and Bosh. The Heat got unexpected production from their bench, which outscored the Mavs by 10 points. They also dominated the offensive glass, with 16 offensive rebounds to the Mavs’ six. Both defenses played well as expected in game one and I expect Miami's to continue to play at an elite level as they have all year and in the playoffs (88 per game allowed in playoffs, 83.4 over their last five games). Both teams will make adjustments and I expect more scoring overall, but in the end, Miami at their best is a team very few can beat on the road. The Heat is now 7-0 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, and has been a remarkable 10-1 ATS in their last 11 on a single day of rest. They are 41-28 ATS this season coming off a win (no let down), and 15-6 ATS after a great defensive effort (allowed 85 or less last game). It's hard beating the Heat at home, with three main options in the four quarter vs. one for Dallas. If you were to hold a draft lottery for the players on the court tonight, three of the top four picks would be from the Heat. With a line that barely goes beyond the home-court advantage (suggesting these teams are pretty even), we again get value on the Heat in this game. Take Miami.