Dallas at Denver

The Mavericks have played very poorly against the NBA's best teams, but have dominated the weak teams. Over their last 28 games have barely been a .500 team, posting a 15-13 record. They are 14-1 against the sub-.500 teams, and a pathetic 1-12 vs the .500+ teams. They have taken a big blow as their leading scorer, rebounder, and top player, Dirk Nowitzki has gone down with a high ankle sprain. So what has gone wrong? Eddie Jones went down, and took his 20 minute per game contribution out of the rotation. Devon Harris had scored 17+ points in 23 games, and was a scoring threat from the point. But Jason Kidd has been a bust, not scoring at all when he does play. Outside of Nowitzki's shooting, the Mavs have no one else among their top five scorers shooting over 46%. That makes it tough, especially against the high-scoring Nuggets who have averaged 127.4 ppg over their last seven games and have won three straight on the road. The Nuggs have also covered eight of their last nine overall. Dallas beat Denver when they played at home, and Nowitzki scored 36% of their points in the win. Dirk has averaged 32 ppg and 11.5 rpg vs the Nuggets this season. Carmelo Anthony did not play in that game, and when he did early in the season at home the Nuggets won by 13. Denver is poor against great teams on the road but they have been destroying the good teams at home, and now that they are playing as good as they have all season which spells trouble for the Mavs. The Nuggets in home wins on the season win by 15.1 ppg. They have beaten 12 teams with winning records at home by double-digits, and 19 of their 28 home wins have been by 10+ points. They have won their last five at home, all by double-digits. Look for another double-digit home win by the Nuggets here.