Dallas at Denver

The Dallas Mavericks are a shade below .500, but since Nowitzki returned to the lineup in game shape, they have been 23-15 over their last 38. Denver has been the best home team in the league at 33-3 on the season, but have not played well defensively of late, allowing better than 100 points per game over their last eight. The Mavs have played their best basketball when following a loss where they are a potent and profitable 14-2 ATS in their last 16, and have been 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. While many teams have folded in Denver, the Mavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips here. Go with the points and the road team.