Dallas at Chicago

Dallas has been a team of streaks this season as they have now won eight straight games. This current streak is only their third-longest winning streak of the season. Chicago has been a bit disappointing this season standing at 24-19. Chicago has been a horrible road team this season winning just six of 19 games but has been a force at home standing at 18-6 - a tad better than the Dallas mark on the road of 16-5. So why then are the Bulls getting points from the Mavericks? Isn't an 18-6 team playing at home supposed to be better than a 16-5 team on the road? Perception is reality and the reality is this is an overlay. Chicago played in Dallas and lost by 12-points. But on the Dallas home-court Chicago was only a four point dog, now they are off of two wins and are a bigger dog at home? There aren't many negative stats on this Dallas team but a close examination of "like" games shows a bit of a weakness. Dallas has everyone gunning for them and must play their best basketball every single night and it takes a toll, especially on the road against a good team like Chicago. Dallas has been 7-3 straight up against good teams where the line has been from -5 to +1.5. Dallas has been just good enough to win but not cover as they are exactly the opposite against the spread just a 3-7 mark! Dallas has managed to out-score these opponents by just 1.3-points per game (PPG). Chicago has a stellar home marker and they have been just the opposite. The Bulls have been giant killers at home. You can argue this point but perhaps the best three teams in the West are the Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio, Phoenix and of course Dallas. Chicago beat the Lake show by five points, San Antonio by 12-points and lost to Phoenix by a single point. The Eastern Conference's elite have been no different. They beat Cleveland by seven points, Detroit by 17-points and Washington by 18-points. They have out-scored the best of both conferences by 10-points a game at home! So what does all this mean? We have a team in Chicago that is 18-6 at home against Dallas that is 16-5 on the road. So Chicago has out-performed Dallas venue vs venue. We have a team in Chicago that has a 10-PPG winning margin against the heavyweights of the entire league and 5-1 ATS, against a team in Dallas that is 3-7 ATS and a winning margin of just 1.3-PPG, in games with closely related lines, or the best they have faced in their last 10 games. Chicago is home, Dallas is away. Chicago is playing with a revenge factor, always worth a little extra effort - especially at home. Dallas is in on their third straight game on the road. Chicago is in their second straight game at home. A poor road team in Chicago that was just a +4 playing at Dallas and now playing in an arena where they are 18-6 are being given even more as a +5? There is no question where the value lies in this one.