This pick was released to clients on August 07, 2012 at 8:25PM ET.
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Cleveland at Washington

April 28, 2006
img8:05 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

I don't pick the side and total on the same game very often, yet this time I beleive the situation calls for two plays in the same game. I like the Cleveland to cover the spread if not win straight up after their home loss to the Wizards. They are the better team and their "need" to win is back after dropping game 2. I also like the game to go under as the statistical trends clearly point to the under. Keep in mind that the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS after a straight up loss, and they understand that if they do not win this game, they face an elimination game at Washington. In what should be a close game, getting the 3 is a bonus. The Cavs are 8-1 on the under as a road dog. The last 5 meetings between these teams have gone under as well. Playoff games featuring a home team off a low scoring game facing an opponent off a loss are very good UNDER plays. Cleveland is 23-13 UNDER in games with a posted total between 190 and 199.5 points this season and 22-10 UNDER following a loss as they turn to defense in those games. In game one, 173 points were scored. In game two it was 193. Defense has ruled the day and I expect the same today. Cavs and under here.

2 units on Cleveland +3 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN
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