Cleveland at San Antonio

San Antonio, as expected, dominated the Cavs in game one. It's hard to believe Cleveland stayed within 9 points actually considering LeBron's no-show. Should we expect anything different in game two? It's the same two teams. It's the same location. We expect a very similar outcome. San Antonio is too good and too experienced to let down. So, it will be up to Cleveland to adjust. But can they? The Spurs, unlike the Pistons, guarded James early so as not to give him a head of steam. They'll do the same tonight. LeBron will likely do better (how can he not) but who else can support him? The Spurs have too many weapons - none of which Cleveland can stop. Who is going to slow down Tony Parker? Maybe Cleveland inserts Eric Snow for that task. But, then a bad Cavs offense gets worse. Who can stop Ginobli or Duncan? Ilgauskas was a complete no-show in game one. It's not going to happen. Cleveand's best shot, in our opinion is to let Daniel Gibson play 40+ minutes. Why Mike Brown is limiting this guy's minutes is a mystery. He ate up the Pistons and in limited action against the Spurs, he was lights-out. If he can get off along with LeBron, they can make it a game. But, the more likely outcome is that LeBron remains contained and the Spurs again flex their multiple muscles. San Antonio is now 14-5 ATS at home this season when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. They are 29-14 ATS the past three seasons off 2+ days rest, 19-9 ATS the past two seasons after scoring 85 or less, and 12-4 ATS thus far in the playoffs. We don't often look for back-to-back repeats in NBA playoff games. But, game one was such a beat-down (that wasn't accurately reflected in the final score), that we think it does repeat here. This is David and Goliath and this time Goliath wins big. We like the UNDER again here, despite the big drop. San Antonio is all about defense. Cleveland is now 26-16 UNDER this season vs. winning teams. They are 11-2 UNDER on the road as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points the past two seasons.  In games with a total between 170 and 179.5 points featuring two great teams (60%+ SU), if the teams went UNDER the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, the UNDER has hit at an astounding 79% rate (52-16) over the past decade.