Cleveland at Miami

Miami has found a scoring rhythm having topped triple-digits in four straight games. In two of those, they played very good defense (85 ppg) and in the other two, they gave up 112 ppg. So what happens here? The linesmakers expect a low-scoring affair but we think this one goes over the low total. Miami tends to get lulled into higher-scoring affairs after a non-conference game (18-8 OVER this year following non-conference game). Given that 14 of the last 19 games between these clubs played here in Miami have gone UNDER, we see a total posted too low (and we get value on the other side). Recent totals in games between these two teams: 192.5, 194.5, 194, 198, 198.5, 196.5. This one is set about ten points lower than the average of those. We'll go contrarian here, avoid the obvious play, and take the OVER.