Cleveland at Miami

It appears LeBron James will miss tonight's game, or at least be slowed with a toe injury and it will mean that Cleveland will be pushing the ball less and trying to shorten the game one way or another. This has been a defensive oriented series, dominated by the UNDER. The last 36 meetings have resulted in 25 UNDERS or over 70% of the time these teams have met over the last 10 years. Cleveland is 19-9 UNDER, off an ATS win and 20-8 under as a 3.5-9.5-point underdog. Miami actually scores three less points a game at home than they do on the road, so defense is the key. They have played under in 20 of the last 27 games, after they have had a shooting night of more than 55% and have gone 13-5 UNDER vs. the NBA Central. Lots of signals here, so under is the play.