This pick was released to clients on September 20, 2012 at 6:06PM ET.
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Cleveland at Detroit

May 31, 2007
img8:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Are we witnessing the changing of the guard in the Eastern Conference Finals, or will Detroit rebound and take charge of this series once again? We watched this Cleveland team fall back 2-0 last year, then come back to take a 3-2 lead only to lose the opportunity in game 6 at home by two points, and was easily put away in game 7 back in Detroit. Last year Cleveland had a lot of scrap and fight, but didn't have the experience to find a way to make it work. They covered less than 40% of their road games vs. playoff teams on the road. This season, things looked to be taking the same path, as they started 1-8 ATS on the road against playoff teams, but began to gel as a team and have finished an amazing 16-2 ATS against playoff teams, including 5 of 6 in the playoffs and have suffered just one loss by more than five points! This team has grown up, and winning in the playoffs is about winning on the road and finishing the job at home. Detroit was an above .500 team at home last year ATS against playoff-bound teams and over .500 in the playoffs as well. This year they have stumbled on both counts, 9-16-1 ATS during the regular season and now just 3-4 in the playoffs. The fact is that Cleveland should have already won this series 4-0, and have out-played Detroit all series because, quite frankly, they have become the better team and their maturity has shown itself since mid-season. Look for the Cavs to at the very least stay close, and if they win, they close out Detroit in 6 back in Cleveland.

3 units on Cleveland +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN
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