Cleveland at Detroit

Detroit has long had the calling card in the playoffs as a "defense-first" team. They have used that calling card for success the last five years in the playoffs. Cleveland tried last year to play the half-court playoff type of game and had some success with it, but this team is a year older, and a year more experienced. Last round, Chicago ended a Detroit 19 game playoff streak of holding opponents under 100 points in Detroit. There are some noteworthy things that show perhaps this Pistons team has fallen off, at least  tad, compared to the past five years. The 03-04 season saw the Pistons give up 100+ in the regular season just four times. In comparison, this year's team allowed 100+ on 20 occasions. The last two years they have scored 100+ 57 times, compared to 58 times the previous three years. That's an indication they are scoring more as well. The defensive end tells a similar story, as they allowed the century mark 40 times the last two years and just 35 the previous three! These numbers have manifested themselves in the playoffs as well. The current playoff run has shown the following PPG allowed at home for Detroit: 2002: 82.5, 2003: 83.3, 2004: 85.4, 2005: 85.1, and 84.6 in 2006. This year that total is up to 89.2. Cleveland closed the season in their last 12 road games averaging 100 ppg and has been averaging 91 so far in the playoffs. The oddsmakers are saying this game ends 91-85 Detroit. Cleveland has yet to be under 85 in the playoffs this year and only four times on the road the entire season, which is about half as many as the previous year.  This series played to higher totals posted by the odds-maker in every game last season, when both teams were more primed to stay within the confines of those numbers. This year in both the regular season and the playoffs, these teams are more likely to be above the level that this total presents. With the lowest total for an NBA playoff game this year, we feel there is about 6-8 points in value based on our analysis in playing the OVER.