Cleveland at Boston

The Celtics won game one but they are not happy or satisfied. Garnett was good but overall it was a very lackluster offensive performance in which Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combined for 4 total points. It was the first game for Allen in eleven years that he didn't score. The Celtics shot 43% and turned the ball over 21 times and still won by four points. Doc Rivers will have his team ready for a much better game two outing. Don't count on Allen and Pierce no-shows again. If they show up, the Celtics can and should blow out a Cleveland team that will continue to struggle offensively. The Cavs are just 14-27 ATS this season after an ATS win and 2-11 ATS following two straight covers. We like the Celtics to win and cover here. After watching the offensive woes of game one, it takes courage to play the OVER in this one. It is, however, where the value lies. Oddsmakers know after game one  that the UNDER players are going to be coming out of the woodwork, and this total is now juiced by 4.5 points from game one. The perception is that this will be another very ugly, low-scoring game. But we will run with the facts. The last 36 game 2's in the semi-final round have shown to be on average 5 points higher scoring than game 1's. That is a lot of games with a significant trend. When you add that to the fact that the odds-makers have yielded another 4.5 in  live value, then we are looking at 9.5 points from where this game should really be. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and LeBron James all threw up stinkers in game one. Don't be bank on that again. Allen scored 20+ vs the Cavs in his last four and Pierce was in foul trouble and never got in the flow. The other big factor is Doc Rivers. When he was miked during game one, he was heard telling his players no walking the ball up the court as that is the game Cleveland wants! You can be sure after not getting that message through, the Celts are going to uptempo game two. There was over 40 lost possessions in game one due to turnovers, and more missed shots by LeBron, Allen and Pierce than any other game this season. Look for this one to go OVER the total.