Cleveland at Boston

The Cleveland Cavaliers may have had the best record in the NBA regular season, but they watched the Celtics claim home-court advantage in what is now a best of five series, with three left to be played in Boston. The Celtics have Pierce, Garnett and Allen, but what they didn't expect a couple of years ago was that Rajon Rondo would emerge as one of the top PGs in the NBA. He put on a clinic with 19 assists in game two. The Cavs are becoming to dependant on LeBron, and often get caught watching. He will get his points, but the Celtics simply have more options and are playing aggressive defense. Cleveland has now gone 1-6 ATS as a small road favorite of up to 4.5, while the Celtics weigh in at 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog. Game threes have historically played really tight in the first half, with an amazing 60% of such games going UNDER in the first-half UNDER over the past decade and a half. The Celtics have held foes to just 43.4 first-half points in the playoffs this season and they are 30-16 UNDER in the first-half overall in playoff games the past three seasons. These teams can both "D" it up, and I expect this game starts there. I'll go with Boston and the first-half UNDER.