Chicago at Milwaukee

The Milwaukee Bucks won a total of 15 games last season, and made a very quick turnaround into the playoffs this season. They have paid the price of their inexperience, and have dropped the first three games of this series, and are facing elimination at home today. The Bucks held an 18-point lead at one point in game three, but the Bulls' defense stifled them the rest of the way, resulting in the 3-0 series deficit. Elimination games are known for being played strongly on the defensive end, and I expect nothing different for this one. When a team reaches three series wins, and it becomes an elimination game, the UNDER has been 98-70-2 over the last 12 years, and a game that is expected to be defensive already, with a posted total of 190 or less, that turns into a huge advantage for the UNDER which is 65-35-1 ATS over the same period, if the team with three wins is on the road. Milwaukee is 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 games vs. a team over .600 and five of the last seven in this series have played UNDER the total. Following a game that went OVER this season, the Bulls are 26-17 to the first-half UNDER. They are also 13-3 UNDER in the first-half after scoring 110+ in the previous game. Milwaukee is 24-14 UNDER in the first-half this season when facing a winning team. Go with the first-half and full-game UNDERs.