Chicago at Indiana

The Indiana Pacers have sure held their ground in this series vs. the Bulls. The problem is that they may have their best basketball behind them. They stand at 0-3 and at this point and mentally they are extinguished. The Bulls will have a better mental approach to this game, as they know the importance of closing this out today. The win will afford them significant rest, awaiting their second round opponent. I think game three was the best we will see from this Pacers team that finished 37-45 for a reason. They have shown that they simply can't close out games, while the Bulls make the necessary stops when they need them. That should lead to garbage time late in this one, and very little resistance on the defensive end. The Pacers are just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 as a dog of 4.5 or less. They are also 15-5-1 to the OVER in that same situation - as a 4.5 point or less home dog. The Bulls are 14-6 to the OVER in their last 20 quarterfinals playoff games. Take Chicago and OVER.