Charlotte at Miami

The defending champs were playing possum down the stretch, and who can blame them? Getting a young Charlotte team in the first round will be no problem for LeBron and his talented cast. Miami has great balance, 12th in points scored, fifth in points allowed. Their lone weak spot can be rebounding, but this is not a great rebounding Bobcats team, 16th in rebounds, 23rd in points scored. After Al Jefferson, no one else averages over 4.9 rebounds. Miami's game on offense is driving down low with LeBron and Dwyane Wade, which opens things up for a slew of fine three-point shooters, and Charlotte ranks 24th in the NBA at defending the three-pointer allowing 36.9% shooting. The Bobcats are 5-11 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning home record. Miami comes off a no-show loss at home, but the Heat is 8-3 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, plus 6-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. Miami is 15-0 against Charlotte since LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade teamed up with the Heat. In four meetings this season, LeBron has scored 61, 34, 30, and 26 points against them. The young Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings and will be shell-shocked early and late. Play Miami. Also take the first-half UNDER. Playoffs basketball is about intensity and that means defense early. Charlotte was 45-36 UNDER this season in the first-half, including 24-15 UNDER following a home game, and 28-13 UNDER after a win. It's time for Miami to step up. Take the Heat and the first-half UNDER.