Charlotte at Memphis

Here we have a team that is just 6-25 SU on the road and is now favored. How crazy is this? It's only the second time in franchise history that Charlotte takes to the road as a favorite. Memphis certainly is a place and team that provides justification to such a rare event. But upon deeper analysis of the numbers, there is truely no value in Charlotte in this situation. Memphis has won just two games in their last 21, which happens to be the number of times they have played a team with a losing record at home. The two wins came when they played a team with a losing record at home! Since the first of the year, Memphis is just 7-28 overall and 6-11 at home. They are 0-10 SU and 0-10 ATS vs teams .500+ at home in this stretch. They are 6-1 SU and ATS at home vs losing teams. They are 3-0 in this same situation since they traded Gasol. The season shows a similar story. They are 1-16 ATS at home vs winning teams, and 9-3 ATS vs losing teams. On the surface this line looks viable, but when you really breakdown what is happening within the number, this line is completely off! Charlotte has never won or covered at Memphis, and the Grizzlies have an opportunity to revenge an earlier loss here. We like the Grizzlies to exploit a bad line, and come away with the home win. We also like the OVER as Charlotte is allowing 103.3 per game on the road and Memphis 106.7 per game at home. Memphis also puts up 102.6 per game at home. Charlotte is 29-16 OVER the past three seasons in the second of back-to-back road games. They are also 20-8 OVER the past two seasons after three straight losses. Memphis and the OVER here.