Boston at Milwaukee

Could the Bucks close this one out here? It's their best shot, at home. They know a loss here likely means a loss in the series. This team is 30-16 in this building, and with the way they are playing defense, they have a good shot at the win and cover here. In the playoffs, they have held teams to just 99.8 points per game, a full 11 points under their regular season average! Boston mentally crumbled at the end of last game, and I expect a hangover from that. In what should be a hard-fought, close game, I think the home team has an edge here. Milwaukee had gone UNDER eight games in a row before the last two games of this series, and Boston still has stayed UNDER in five of its last eight games dating back to the regular season. The teams went UNDER in the first half in Game 5, scoring 101 points, and Milwaukee shot only 43% for the game while the Celtics shot 51% and still lost as they missed 21 of 31 3-point tries. Boston now is 11-3 UNDER in its last 14 conference semifinal games, and the Bucks are 19-7-2 UNDER in their last 28 playoff games as favorites. Milwaukee has gone UNDER in four of its last five home games and in four straight overall following an ATS win. Surprisingly, Boston has held the Bucks to just a .409 field goal percentage in the two games played at Milwaukee this series, and the teams averaged only 95.5 points in the first half in Games 3 and 4. Take the First-Half UNDER for a Max Play, the full-game UNDER, and also play Milwaukee to cover.