This pick was released to clients on May 25, 2023 at 11:19AM ET.
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Boston at Miami

May 25, 2022
img8:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Boston dominated Game 4 from the start, destroying the Heat 102-82. It didn't take much against an unmotivated Miami squad that had already maintained home-court advantage with their win in Game 3. The Celtics shot just 40-percent overall, and 8-for-34 on 3-pointers. Miami was nothing short of hideous as it shot 33-percent from the field, and even on their home floor it's going to be difficult for the Heat to ramp it up again. Look for a much better all-round performance from the Celtics in the offensive end. Jayson Tatum scored 31 points Monday on 8-for-16 shooting, but the rest of the team finished with a .371 field goal percentage while still winning in a blowout. Boston is 9-4-1 ATS its last 14 games and 32-17-1 ATS since late January. Tyler Herro - a big source of offense for Miami - sat out Game 4 with a groin injury (and is questionable here), and Jimmy Butler went 3-for-14 with six points as he battles knee problems and those are major factors in this matchup. Boston has allowed just 98.4 points per game over their last five, a full six points per game less than their season average. Miami's defense has stepped things up in the playoffs, giving up 100.7 per game after allowing 104.8 per game in the regular season. Following an UNDER this season, the Celtics have gone UNDER in the first half 30 out of 47 times. They are also 19-10 to the first-half UNDER vs. teams at .600 or better. As a favorite, the C's are 39-29 UNDER this season. Play the Celtics to cover, take the first-half UNDER, and make a play on the full game to stay UNDER the total. 

1 unit on Boston -2 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on 1st ½ Total UNDER 99 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 204 -109 (risk 1 to return 1.92)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Boston Celtics img
17
20
32
24
93
Miami Heat
19
23
16
22
80
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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