In early January, Boston was 18-21, with odds of 150-to-1 to win it all. Things have changed dramatically in the past four months, but this will still be the Celtics' greatest test of the postseason. Golden State had the luxury of resting and preparing for the NBA Finals since putting away the Mavericks on Thursday, while Boston had to grind out a seven-game series with Miami and now had just one day to travel and play the Warriors in Game 1. The Celtics beat the Warriors 110-88 in Golden State back in March, and Boston is 30-20 SU and 32-16 ATS on the road, but the Warriors are 40-10 SU and 31-19 ATS at home. The Celtics led throughout the game on Sunday night and had to hold on as the Heat put on a frantic run in the final minutes. Three of the last four games stayed UNDER as the Heat averaged only 92.2 points and they scored just 49 points in the first half in Game 6. Golden State has won five of six and is itching to get its first title in its new arena in San Francisco.
The Warriors have plenty of scorers starting with, of course, Stephen Curry (25.9 ppg in the playoffs), Klay Thompson (19.8), Jordan Poole (18.4) and Andrew Wiggins (15.8). Golden State is 8-2-1 ATS its past 11 games playing with at least three days rest and the Celtics are 2-5-1 ATS following a win. The UNDER is 8-2 the last 10 meetings between these teams, including the March 16 contest that stayed UNDER by 22.5 points. These are the top two teams in defensive efficiency and the UNDER is 7-0 the past seven meetings at Golden State. That being said, Boston is allowing just 101 points per game in the playoffs while Golden State is allowing 109.1 - 3 points per game higher than their regular season average. Rested and motivated, I'm backing the Warriors to come out on top tonight. Make it a Max Play on the Warriors, a second Max Play on the first-half UNDER, and also back the full game total to stay UNDER.
