Boston at Orlando

This has the makings of a classic series with both teams playing at very high levels. The Magic have run the table in the playoffs, winning eight straight and 14 straight overall. Meanwhile the Celtics shocked the Cavaliers in rather easy fashion, winning the final three to dispose of the Cavs in six games. Something has to give, so what is it? Boston is playing well, but the Magic are simply on another level right now, winning big and covering everything in sight. To put what they have done at home in perspective, the Magic would still be a No. 6 seed in the East if they laid 10 points in all their home games! There is also the round three game one dominance by No. 2 seeds that shows them 9-0 ATS since 1992! Orlando is averaging 105.3 points per game at home this season and Boston is just 82-215 ATS when they allow 105+ and Orlando is 31-8 ATS this season when scoring 105 or more. The Celtics are just 20-29 ATS this season when facing a team that averages 100+ per game. Under Van Gundy, the Magic are 77-57 ATS as a home favorite. I like the Magic to win handily here. I also like the UNDER. The Magic have been about defense when it comes to the really good teams that have a greater than .600 winning percentage as they are 39-18 to the UNDER. The Celtics have been around the playoffs enough to know the deeper you go, the more defense becomes a deciding factor. As such, they have played 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine Conference Finals games. The Magic are 29-17 UNDER this season when playing winning teams. They are 28-17 UNDER vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. I’m taking Orlando and UNDER in game one.