Boston at Milwaukee

Milwaukee has started off 3-1, their best start in seven years. One of those three wins came against this Celtics team and revenge is sweet. The Celtics have struggled early as new players are getting mixed in. But this team still has Rondo, Garnett and Pierce. Rondo leads the league in assists (14 per game) and is also adding nearly 16 points per game. Pierce is putting up 20 per game. After a slow start, Jason Terry is picking up. The NBA is often about effort. Milwaukee may relax a little here sitting at .750 and already having beaten Boston this season. Meanwhile, at 2-3 and fresh off a loss last game and a double-digit loss to Milwaukee in the opener, I expect Boston to bring a lot of effort here. In the Doc Rivers era, the Celts are 124-95 ATS as a road dog. They also bring their best after a loss to a division rival, going 11-1 ATS the past three seasons in that situation. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is just 12-27 ATS over that same span at home off a win. Take Boston here. The Boston Celtics have tried to revamp their lineup with the loss of Ray Allen and a pair of vital players in Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett that are both in the twilight of their careers. It shows up most when they have to go on back-to-back nights. Boston likes the slower tempo, and with consecutive nights I think they try and shorten the game here to conserve energy, as defense has always been their strong suit. The Bucks have started fast but have alternated good offense for bad. When coming off of 101 points, and taking on a defensive minded team, I expect them to continue that form. Boston has played UNDER in four of their last five on no rest. Also, this series has seen five of the last six fail to reach the total. The Bucks have played five straight to the UNDER vs. the Atlantic, so I like this one to fall short of the total. Play on Boston and take the UNDER.