Boston at Miami

The Boston Celtics took both games at home to even their series vs. the Miami Heat. That sets up a critical Game 5 in Miami, as the series is now a best of three. Teams in the NBA playoffs that win Game 5 after the series was tied at two games apiece win the series 83% of the time, so this is a huge game. Boston took a fall in Game 1 here by 14 points, and has held their own since. But this is a Heat team that has a mission after losing a year ago, and they have been a tough out at home in the playoffs. The Heat have amped it up at home in the playoffs with their “dream team”. Miami is 15-1 straight-up in the playoffs prior to the final round over the last two years, and have won the 15 games by a combined 198 points or by 13.2 points per game. They have played very focused defense, and in the 15 games proceeding the finals they have not allowed any team to score 100 points without the benefit of overtime. They have held the 15 teams here to 85 ppg in regulation minutes. Boston has shown some flashes on offense, but that has been mostly at home. Their offense has had a lot of empty moments and droughts throughout these playoffs. Their eight road games show that they have not topped the 87-point mark in six of them, and those six saw them average 80.7 ppg. The Heat are now 16-7 ATS as a playoffs favorite in their last 23, while playing to a 25-9 UNDER mark in their last 34 as a home favorite. They are also 27-11 to the UNDER in their last 38 on a day of rest. Play on Miami and take the UNDER in this pivotal Game 5.