Boston at Miami

The Boston Celtics are a far cry from the team they have been over the past few seasons. They do get a boost now that Rajon Rondo is back on the court and working into game shape. Miami has the look of a team that is either aging as we speak, injury riddled, or pacing themselves into the playoffs. It probably isn't any one of those, but a combination of all of them. That makes them an overrated team, and one which has to sustain the "A" game from every opponent. It has left this two-time champion just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games, and I don't see any reason for anything to change here tonight. The points matter in about 16% of all games, but in the last 13 Heat wins the points have mattered six times - a clear cut look of a team that is simply over-valued. Play the points on Boston.