Boston at Miami

While Chicago stands atop the Eastern conference, these two teams battle for second place, both sitting at 55-24 on the season. This is a critical game for obvious reasons. Too bad for Boston it's in Miami. Yes, Boston is 3-0 so far in this series this season. But that's all the more reason Miami needs to make a statement. They know they MUST win this home game, or what chance do they have in the playoffs? In essence, this is Miami's most important game ever since the arrival of James and Bosh. And I expect an inspired effort as a result. The Celtics are 23-16 straight-up on the road this season, but just 18-21 ATS. They will play their signature defense (90.6 allowed per game on the road), but Miami will also be playing great defense here. The Celtics are coming off a big win over Washington (104-88) and that's not a good sign for them as they are just 11-23 ATS after an ATS win this season. That includes a 6-22 ATS mark after a double-digit win and a 2-12 record after a 15+ point win. I like the motivated Heat here. I also like the UNDER. This game will have some playoff intensity and that generally spells defense. Boston is one of the best defending teams in the league and Miami can shut teams down when they are motivated, as they are today. Boston is 13-5 UNDER this season on the road vs. winning teams. They are also 21-10 UNDER since last season when coming off a 10+ point home win. Take the Heat and the UNDER in this game.