Boston at Los Angeles

We have said all along that Boston was the better team in this series, but someone is still enamoured with Kobe and the Lakers. The oddsmakers may or may not agree with the public, but they have to play the line into public expectations. With that, value continues to exist on the side of the Celtics. Why the continnued faith in the Lakers? Boston has now beaten LA five out of six times this year. In the loss, they covered the spread with a chance to win that one. For a team to blow a 24-point lead at home in the NBA Finals is inexcuable. Good teams make runs from way back on the road. Great teams make those runs count in the win column and that is exactly what Boston did. How will each team react to the result of game four? It has to be in the Lakers heads right now. How can you be "up" after that fiasco and dropping to 1-3 in a series in which no team has ever recovered from that deficit? The Celtics, once confidence torn on the road in the playoffs, certainly have their swagger back after that performance. Many felt that a team that could not win a single game in Atlanta or Cleveland on the road, was doomed playing in LA. Ignored was the fact that this Boston team actually had a better record on the road during the regular season than the Lakers did at home! Forgotten was the fact that Detroit was 34-7 at home, and the Celtics went their and won two of three. Now we reach game five, where the home team has managed to cover just 25% of the time over the last 10 years, and the Celtics are playing with extreme confidence. The public and oddsmakers inexpicably haven't budged a bit, and either have we. We have ridden the Celtics all series long, they have now covered five straight, and we expect them to make it six tonight. We also like this one to play UNDER the total. The Lakers offense is the reason why everyone has fallen in love with this team. They averaged 118 ppg early in the playoffs vs Denver and Utah. But versus San Antonio and Boston, two teams that are all about defensive commitment, have held LA to 92.8 ppg in nine playoff games! That is 27 points less, and it shows one thing for sure. When you get to the later rounds of the playoffs, defense is what wins games. The Celtics D is the reason they were able to make the historic game four comeback (held LA to 33 points in the second half). It is also why eight of the nine games have gone UNDER for the Lakers playing these two defensive teams. What has also gone largely unnoticed is Boston opened the playoffs allowing 102.5 ppg on the road in their first four, but since have allowed no one to score more than 94 in their last seven, allowing a stingy 85 ppg in these seven games. The Celtics have also played 7-1 to the UNDER in these games. We like Boston and the UNDER.