Boston at Los Angeles

We've talked all series long about how the so-called experts have this series pegged wrong. It has panned out as Boston took care of their two home games and easily covered the huge game three line, giving LA a scare in the process. The lines have been padded all series long by the oddsmakers, given the public sentiment. In game two the Celtics, the team that was 35-6 at home for the season, and now 12-1 in the playoffs, for a combined 47-7, were posted as an underdog. How could there ever be value on the Lakers? There isn't. Last game the better team got +9.5 points. Boston shot about as bad as they have all season, with Paul Pierce 2-14, Kevin Garnett 6-21, and sharp-shooter Eddie House 2-8. That is a combined 8-43 or under 20%. Despite that, the Celtics stayed within striking distance the entire game! One would think a team shooting 34% on the road vs the Lakers would get blown out of the building, but that was not the case. This is a Lakers team that outside of a lopsided win vs San Antonio at home, has won by just 6, 8, 4, and 7 points now in four of the last five at home in the playoffs. Sasha Vujacic scored 20 points (was averaging 6.6 ppg over the Lakers last six playoff games and never scoring double digits) and Kobe was "on" and the Lakers still couldn' t pull away. The Lakers offense that was producing points fast and furious has been slowed by the defensive orientation of Boston and San Antonio. Their home games against these teams have seen the first half total average just 90 points per game and we believe that this one will be no different. First half totals in this range with a well rested team playing four or less games in the last ten days (Lakers), that have a winning percentage of 60-75%, against another winning team have played the first-under in 90 of the last 124 games, or 72.6% of the time. We like defense to rule the roost again and for Boston to again stay close and maybe win.