The so-called experts were convinced the Lakers were the better team entering this series. Nine out of ten ESPN NBA analysts picked LA to win the series. We have said from the start that Boston is the better team. We feel somewhat vindicated by games one and two, however, this series isn't over. Anything can still happen as these teams are pretty evenly matched. Now the series returns to LA and everyone is convinced that the Lakers will absolutely destroy Boston by double-digits. This line stems from the memory that the Celtics are supposedly a horrible road team. But are they that bad? Should a team that won both of the first two games (building a 22-point lead in game two) be getting +9.5 on the road in game three?We felt getting the better team at home as an underdog last game was a gift. We feel we have another one here. Sometimes in sports, losing begets losing, and the Celtics fell victim to that early in these playoffs. They lost six straight on the road, but finally broke through when they had to, winning not only once in Detroit, but twice. So, the Celtics are 2-6 on the road in the playoffs. But, they are 2-0 in their last two, and most people have easily forgotten that Boston was 31-10 on the road this season! So, is this really such a bad road team? No! If you look at their body of work, they are actually an amazingly great road team. Consider that no team in the last five years has topped that regular season road mark! Of the 10 regular-season road losses, only two were by enough points to cover this line. This line is chock full of value as we see it. We also must consider the fact that the Celtics have the best defense in the NBA. The Lakers have seen their production go down at home vs teams that play defense, as they managed just 96.7 ppg against them in three home games. The last game was a shoot-out with 210 points scored. Boston gave up 41 in the fourth quarter. That makes us like the UNDER even more here. The Celtics, after allowing 100 points, have played UNDER in 41 of their last 55. The Celtics know that defensive intensity wins on the road in the playoffs. They let up in the fourth-quarter last game after building a ridiculous 22-point lead. Does that mean LA can score at will on this team? No - don't be fooled. Boston has shut down the Lakers in all but one quarter so far in the playoffs. They held LA to 61 points through three quarters on Sunday. Boston shut down LA in the regular season too. As we mentioned, this is actually a great matchup for Boston and a bad matchup for LA. Boston can beat great offensive teams but LA struggles against great defenses. Boston has dominated LA in every meeting so far this year, yet they are getting nearly 10 points - it makes no sense if you look at these teams true strengths. The public is buying in hook-line-and-sinker to the concept that LA will go back home pissed off, and lay a whopping on the Celtics. In their minds, LA is still the better team (we disagree). The linesmakers have played into this, boosting this line to the point where there is value on the Celtics. We like the Boston plus the points as well as a contrarian UNDER play here after last game's shoot-out.
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