Boston at Dallas

After their amazing start, it's hard to imagine that the Celtics could heat it up even more but that's what they have done, winning 13 of their last 14 games. They have taken out two Western Conference contenders in Houston and San Antonio and now shoot for a third. They laid an amazing comeback on the World Champion Spurs two games back and then proceeded to end Houston's 22 game winning streak (NBA second-best) with a 20-point beat-down. They have done this all without Ray Allen and his 18 ppg. Can they make it three in a row on the road against the league's elite? We don't think so. Dallas has also been hot, winning five of six. They are off a 2 point loss to the Lakers but over these last six games they are outscoring their opponents by an average of 19.4 ppg (108.5 - 89.1). Dallas has more to play for. They need to protect their home court (where they are very strong at 29-5). They are fighting for playoff position, whereas Boston is not. Teams that have won 20+ of their last 25 games, playing in a game with a line of -3 to +3 are just 17-40 ATS (30%) the past five seasons. We tend to fade Dallas on the road but at home it's another story. We think Boston's great run hits a speed bump tonight. We also love the first-half UNDER here. Boston, when playing versus the best teams in the leauge, look to their defense. Versus .600+ teams they allow 87.5 ppg. That's amazing when you consider that those opponents average 101.5 ppg. That means the Celts are keeping these top teams to 14 points less than their season average. Dallas has held their last five opponents to 42.2 first-half points. This is Boston's ninth game in the last 13 days and fourth straight road game following two key games. We expect them to be a little flat offensively and we'll back the first half UNDER and the Mavs against the spread.