Boston at Atlanta

This is a tough matchup for the aging Celtics in playing the young, athletic Hawks. Boston can struggle against physical frontcourts, especially Kevin Garnett, who admitted recently that while he doesn't mind playing center he does not like the pounding, physical inside style, which Atlanta is very good at anchored by Josh Smith. Boston not only has age concerns but injury trouble, with Paul Pierce battling an injured big toe and Ray Allen missing the last nine games with bone spurs. The Hawks have home court and are rested, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days of rest. Atlanta is not getting much respect in the betting marketplace, despite having home court advantage and holding a league-best 24-15 ATS mark as home favorite this season. Take Atlanta in Game 1. The oddsmakers have made the total too low. Boston has plenty of offensive options, as do the Hawks. Atlanta is undervalued offensively on a 19-7 run OVER the total. Versatile sharp-shooter Joe Johnson will be counted on for plenty of scoring outside and a key inside will be Josh Smith and his physical play to score and draw fouls and free throws. The OVER is 16-5 in the Hawks' last 21 games as a favorite and 10-1 OVER the total in their last 11 home games. Plus, the OVER is 5-0 in the Celtics’ last five playoffs games as an underdog. Play the Hawks and Game 1 OVER.