Atlanta at Phoenix

Atlanta is scoring 88.9 per game vs. opponents giving up an average of 94 per game (a -5.1 ppg difference). They are giving up 97.3 per game vs. opponents scoring 94.2 (+2.1). Phoenix is scoring 102.7 vs. teams giving up 93.3 (+9.4) and allowing 97.9 vs. teams scoring 94.3 (+3.6). The average points scored per game per team in the NBA this year is 95. So, here we can expect Atlanta to score 90 (95-5.1) and to allow 98 (95+3.1). That's 188. Another way to look at this is that we can expect Phoenix to score 104 (95+9.4) and give up 99 (95+3.6). That's 203. Average the two (188+203 / 2) and we get 195.5. Now, we know Atlanta, like most teams, struggles more on the road than at home. They have been averaging just 86 points per game on the road, while allowing about exactly the same amount (97) as their average. Surprisingly, Phoenix doesn't really score more at home (102.8) than they do on average overall (102.7). So, we have a team that plays relatively good road defense vs. a team that plays relatively average home offense. And, we have a road team that plays subpar offense on the road. Layer on a few situations... Games with a total between 190 and 199.5 points featuring a good home team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (<-7 PPG differential) have gone UNDER 72% of the time (47-18) since 1996. Also, Phoenix is 33-14 UNDER versus pathetic teams that shoot <43% with a defense of >46% since 1996. Take the UNDER here.