Atlanta at Denver

Atlanta is ending their longest road trip of the season and they run into a motivated Nuggets team that has only lost seven times in 31 home games this season. The Melo-less Nuggets are out to prove that they can still win as evidenced by their 3-1 mark since the big trade. In those four games, they beat Milwaukee on the road as an underdog. They also took care of Memphis in this building, winning by 13 points. Then they handed Boston an embarrassing 14-point loss, holding the Celtics to just 75 points. Their lone loss came at the hands of Portland. Denver was a 7.5 point underdog but nearly pulled off the upset, losing by just one point. This team is clearly playing hard right now. The Hawks are a good road team and can certainly keep this close, but I don't see them winning. When facing teams that score 103+ points per game, the Hawks are just 2-7 straight-up this season. In the favorite role, the Nuggets are 111-42 the past three seasons. Over that same span they are 14-2 at home when playing with two days rest. And, they are also 16-1 straight-up at home the past three seasons after a close loss (by 6 points or less). I like Denver on the moneyline here. I also like the UNDER. Atlanta's offense has been average at best all season but of late, it's getting a bit worse. They haven't scored in triple figures in nine straight games and over their last eight, they are averaging just 89.3 per game. The loss of Carmelo Anthony brings Denver's high-flying offense back down to earth. The Hawks are 14-6 UNDER this season when facing winning teams. They are also 15-7 UNDER vs. teams like the Nuggets that hit 36%+ from beyond the arc. Take the Nuggets outright and the UNDER here.