Atlanta at Dallas

Dallas appears to be the same team as last year in some respects, but quite different in others. The Mavs have dropped 11 games already this season. They didn't lose their 11th game last year until March 14th. It isn't the offense, they ranked 9th last year, and are currently 9th this year. It is the commitment to the winning side of the floor, defense. The Mavs were 4th overall last year, and have slipped to 12th this year. The result shows up in the win/loss column, but where it shows up even more, is covering large pointspreads. The Mavs are currently 5-10 ATS when favored by 7 or more. Last year, even with them winning almost every game, the pointspreads thrown at them were difficult to beat. They finished 11-17 ATS with a spread of 9 or more. There simply is no value on them. Dallas got out of the gate fast, at 9-2, including 6-0 at home. They have since gone just 10-9.  The Hawks come to Dallas with a five game winning streak, their longest in 8 years. They have also won 8 of 10. The Hawks were out of the gate as expected at 3-7, and 0-4 on the road. But they have really begun to mature as a team. They have since gone 12-5, including 5-2 on the road. The difference is their commitment to the defensive end of the floor. Last year the Hawks were ranked at #15 in points allowed. This year, they are a top 10 team, at #7. They have done this by also turning a leagues worst offense at #30, and have risen to #22. Simply a much improved team on both sides of the ball. Too many points for a hot team, vs a team that is not making the commitment on defense. If that is not enough, Golden State is next on the slate for Dallas. You can bet that game has their attention, and this one does not. With Atlanta's renewed committment to defense, we also like the first half UNDER here. Atlanta road games are averaging under 90 ppg. The Hawks are 17-8 UNDER in the first half on the season including 8-1 UNDER as a road dog. Over the past two seasons, they are 8-0 UNDER in the first half vs. teams winning 60%+ of their games.