NBA Betting Strategies

There are two ways to approach the wagering window: prepared or underprepared. Most sports bettors are underprepared, happy to wing their bets and throw a few bucks on teams they have a hunch on. Wagering against an opponent because they knocked your favorite team out of the playoffs five years ago may feel great in the short term, but a higher winning percentage feels much more satisfying in the long run. The simplest betting tip to remember is: your emotions about the team have no bearing on the outcome of tonight’s point spread.

Perhaps even more dangerous is when sports bettors approach a game thinking they’re prepared (based on some belief about insider information) and then bet significant amounts of money with a mistaken belief that they have an edge.

Sportsbooks stay in business catering to unsophisticated and ill-equipped bettors. A far smaller group of bettors can turn a consistent profit by handicapping correctly. You can be one of them! Using my premium NBA picks, or by creating a solid betting strategy yourself. The tips below will help you think like a pro handicapper when betting the NBA. 

What is a Winning Basketball Betting Tips and Strategy? 

A successful strategy is simply one that wins over time. It will usually include betting systems with solid reasoning and be time-tested. Oddsmakers post multiple NBA odds on one game. There are point spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props. Betting strategies have been crafted over time to zero in on a specific area. NBA wagering strategies can revolve around components like injuries, coaches, matchups, NBA trends, defense, or home/road dynamics. They're designed to force bettors to avoid emotion and focus on hard data to put the NBA odds in their favor.

What NBA Betting System is Best for Me? 

There's not one right system or strategy. Certain systems are a better fit for some bettors than others. One person may have a good sense of undervalued underdogs, while another may have a knack for NBA totals. Other bettors have a deep understanding of how and why home court plays such a key role in basketball spread covers, so they excel with betting strategies that tie into home/road dynamics. Other NBA betting strategies are heavily data-driven and appeal to those who sift through reams of daily stats. It's best to examine different betting strategies to determine which ones mesh with your handicapping skills.

When making my premium picks, I take into account betting systems across all of these categories and more. Below, I’m sharing some of the factors 

NBA Matchups 

One meat-and-bones NBA betting strategy is matchups on the court. This is about statistical analysis of players and teams. A team that shoots well from 3-point land, for example, matched against a team that doesn't defend well beyond the arc. That's an edge ranking high in the matchup, identified by each team's offensive and defensive stats. 

Another matchup would be point guard play. Quality point guards make the right passes at the right time, get other players involved, and don't turn the basketball over frequently. They can have an edge against a team with weak defensive numbers, such as points and field goal shooting allowed. A team that turns the ball over often has a disadvantage against teams that are good at forcing turnovers. Matchup advantages can give teams an edge of a few extra points, which you then compare and calculate with the posted point spread to identify the best NBA picks. 

Recent Form

Full-season stats are an excellent gauge of a team's style of play, strengths, and weaknesses, but teams change over the course of a season. Coaches bench players who aren't effective, try younger players and make adjustments because of injuries. This can alter a team's performance straight up and against the spread. It applies to betting totals, too. A poor to mediocre defensive team can improve defensive chemistry. Perhaps the players took time to develop cohesion, or the coach adjusted with personnel who better fit his defensive system. Instead of being a team that goes OVER the total, now they're playing more games UNDER. All of this means a handicapper should examine the overall stats and a team's recent form straight up and against the odds. 

NBA Scheduling

Different situational betting strategies revolve around the NBA season schedule. Schedule-makers can have a significant role in how a team performs. Bad teams on five-game homestands will probably play a few impressive games. They'll hang in there against far better teams or even pull off a few upsets as underdogs. After all, the fans pay their salaries by showing up and rooting for them to play well. That provides an incentive for weak teams to give a great effort. Conversely, teams on six-game road trips have to deal with more challenges and headaches than their opponents. Even the best teams can get fatigued during extended time away from home. Betting strategies can be built around a rested team facing one playing the second of a back-to-back. Another thing is how teams fare when playing the third game in four nights, or fourth in six, etc. 

NBA Home Court Advantage

No sport has more stark home/road differences than basketball. The NBA record for wins at home is 40-1 by the 1985-86 Boston Celtics and the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs. Those teams went 27-14 on the road—impressive, but not even close to 40-1. Handicappers break down team stats the same way. Points, shooting, and defensive numbers are different at home than on the road. Teams can have winning home marks with a +8 scoring differential but are .500 on the road, where they're getting outscored. Home teams have another advantage: the visiting team is dealing with difficulties that crop up on road trips. Teams on road trips are changing time zones, practicing in surroundings they're not used to, staying in unfamiliar hotels, and taking bus rides to arenas where fans will be booing them. Many professional athletes admit they find it impossible to sleep on airplanes. That disrupts sleeping patterns that can negatively affect their mind and bodies during road treks. 

NBA Line Movement 

Instead of focusing on the court, a different betting strategy when you bet on basketball is to focus on the wagering tote boards. Odds will adjust, and serious bettors pay attention to line movement. Injuries to star NBA players are one factor, of course, but lines also move because too much money is coming in on a side or total. 

The tricky part is determining why. 

A line can move because casual fans are betting the favorite in a televised marquee showdown. Serious bettors would be inclined to do the opposite. If the average bettor is moving a number one way, it's probably the wrong way. Casual bettors repeatedly overinflate lines, often on favorites, offering increased value on the underdog. In some cases, Joe Public (aka casual bettors) can move a line across a key number, presenting an excellent opportunity for value bettors to swoop in. Serious bettors can also dissect where public money and sharp money is moving when they bet on the NBA. A game between two bad teams won't attract much interest from the average fan or bettor. But if big money moves the sports betting line, it's probably a few sharp players whose opinions should be respected. Following the sharp money can be a sound betting strategy. 

NBA Live Betting

Live betting is another way to wager on or against line movement, only this time as the game is being played. The point spread shifts all the time during live betting. If a 5-point favorite opens up a 12-point first-quarter lead, they're looking a lot better than they did pregame. One can now wager on them as a 7- or 8-point favorite or get better value with the NBA underdog if you think they're likely to come back. Basketball teams go on runs in a constant game of ebb and flow. A hot-shooting squad that scores 70 first-half points might come back to earth in the second half, especially if they're generally not a strong offensive team. 

NBA Totals 

Another betting number attached to every NBA game is the total points scored by both teams. Since oddsmakers compute totals based on seasonal stats and injuries, two teams with above-average defensive statistics can offer value UNDER the total. Defensive effort often starts at the top, with head coaches teaching and demanding it. Plenty of NBA teams can have winning records despite below-average offensive numbers. Handicappers examine points given up, field goal shooting allowed, and 3-point defense to assess defensive capabilities. If two defensive teams clash, the handicapping edges suggest a low-scoring affair. 

In addition, watching line movement is helpful. NBA totals will shift further than sides because less money is bet on totals. Casual bettors prefer sides, so there's more significant, sharp money on totals. It's easier to detect what totals are being hit by professional bettors. "Following the money" helps bettors zero in on the weakest NBA totals. 

Correlated NBA Parlays

Parlays are more than one bet tied together. The upside is higher odds and higher payouts. The downside is all the wagers have to win or the entire parlay is a loser. A general rule is parlaying not more than two or three games. Going 4-1 (80%) on a $50 five-team parlay still means you lose $50. Correlated NBA parlays are common with professional bettors. It's a parlay on one game utilizing, for instance, the side and the total. If a 7-point underdog is a strong defensive team, the handicapper may conclude that they can cover in a defensive game, such as an 89-85 final score. Since the pace is expected to be a slow, grinding affair, the handicapper may also like the game to go UNDER the total. A correlated parlay would be a two-teamer backing the underdog and the game going UNDER the total. 

As a pro handicapper, I approach each day with systems and tested betting strategies to find the best bets for my clients. Betting strategies are a great foundation to work with by analyzing matchups, recent form, home-court advantage, and scheduling dynamics, also known as "situational handicapping." And it's not just for wagering on sides, but other avenues such as live betting, totals, and parlays. It encompasses knowing stats, team strengths, and weaknesses while keeping a constant eye on line movement for clues to where the money is moving. The end game is about getting more money moving into your pockets so you can feel the thrill of winning, not just the thrill of betting against a team you hate. Increasing your win percentage pays more in the long run and having a solid betting strategy helps you get there. Take my strategies for a test drive when you get my premium picks. Each spread, moneyline and total pick comes with a detailed analysis so you can see how I think and how I’m putting strategy into place.