Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

The Miami Heat are just 25-28 on the season, as the season is coming down to the home stretch. That record is good for No. 8 in the East and a ticket to the play-in round. They will take on a Toronto team that is 17-38 and has little hope of extending their season. This will be the first game back for both teams after the all-star break, and typically, after a week or so of rest, a team will come out playing well on offense but not up to speed on the defensive end of the floor. When both teams are playing their first game after the All-Star break they are 236-203-17 to the OVER, which is right around 54%, and blindly profitable. I like OVER the total in this one.

Toronto has lost 11 of its 12 road contests. They've lost three in a row, all at home, and now make a long road trip south. Their last road game was also at Miami, losing 121-111, despite shooting 53.8% from the field. The Raptors come off a loss to the Knicks as forward Scottie Barnes left in the third quarter with a sprained right ankle. Barnes (20.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) is their second-leading scorer and rebounder. The defense is 25th in points given up. Miami plays its fourth consecutive home contest off victories over the Lakers (134-93), the Suns (121-111), and the top-seeded Cavaliers (122-113). The defense is seventh in the NBA in points given up and 10th in shooting allowed. Play Miami. 

Miami beat the Raptors 121-111 on Friday night as Jimmy Butler scored 26 points and the Heat hit 21 of 54 3-point attempts in their fourth win in five games. However, the Heat are just 3-17-1 ATS their past 21 games following an ATS win and Toronto has covered four straight after a loss. Toronto is home following a four-game trip, which included two wins against Detroit and New Orleans before losing to the Heat. The Raptors now are in quick revenge mode facing the Heat two days later and they are 8-4 ATS the past 12 meetings. Toronto has covered the spread five of its past seven games and 13 of 20 this season. Miami is 5-10 ATS its past 15 games against Eastern Conference teams and it has lost 13 of 18 outright at Toronto. Take the Raptors.