How to Read NBA Betting Trends

NBA basketball trends provide key data needed to win at basketball betting. They’re one tool that can assist a serious handicapper and sharp money in unearthing winners. 

It’s hard to consistently win wagering on the NBA if you can't dissect NBA matchups, situations, and angles to identify advantages in the posted NBA odds. The average bettor doesn't put time into careful analysis. They bet quickly on hunches or back their favorite team, regardless of the line. They also lose...a lot. 

Professional bettors that gamble do their homework examining NBA odds, matchups, situations, power rankings, and more. A pro aims to unearth a few edges that favor one team relevant to the point spread. Trends can help with this.

What do NBA Betting Trends Provide? 

Betting trends reveal patterns during the ups and downs of a long basketball season. An NBA team may go 10-2 against the spread in one month, then 3-9 ATS the next. Trends like that are expected and, in and of themselves, meaningless. Other betting odds break down how a team performs in home vs. road games, including points scored while others incorporate long-term historical betting data over several years.

Betting trends have become a regular part of sportsbook line sheets, sports information websites, and even in-depth game analysis. NBA betting trends come in the form of team situations, spread covers, totals, victories as underdogs, home/road play, and many more forms. 

Deciphering Sports Wagering Trends

There are two basic ways to accumulate and analyze trends in betting. One is to find places that have already done the job of computing and organizing trends. The back of sportsbook line sheets often have trends on how a team is performing both recently and over the course of the season. Stats reveal how many points they're scoring and allowing. Also visible are spread trends, such as what a team's spread and OVER/UNDER records are for the season and over the last ten games. Some magazines and websites also present dozens of spread trends, such as "this NBA team is 12-5 ATS in the role of the underdog" or "4-11 ATS when playing the second of a back-to-back". 

The other way is to tabulate betting trends yourself. Finding trusted sites that keep updated NBA team logs allows one to calculate betting trends relevant to their handicapping style. Or, find a handicapper you trust that does a great job at this, as it can be a lot of work.

Trends are relatively useless unless you know how to use them though.

Utilizing NBA Betting Trends 

Betting trends are best utilized alongside other data to find winning edges. Sports teams have all kinds of daily numerical trends presented. A common one found almost everywhere is how teams have done over the last ten games. With so many NBA teams and NBA games, there will be a lot of 6-4 ATS and 5-5 ATS trends, providing no insight. An NBA team on an 8-2 spread run catches your attention, but that has no bearing on whether they will cover the next game. Where it becomes relevant is to see if there are additional reasons that explain why a team is beating the public and oddsmaker expectations. Digging deeper, you may find that a team is getting healthy and suddenly covering numbers. Or a coaching change was made, and they've found a spark. Perhaps a coach benched a turnover-prone guard two weeks ago, and the offense has improved significantly, scoring more points and covering betting odds more frequently. Since oddsmakers base numbers on overall seasonal stats, NBA betting trends can help point handicappers in the right direction to unearth softer odds and winning opportunities. 

One caveat about these common, small-sample trends is that they don't consider variance. Small samples, such as a 12-3 (80%) trend for a team as a divisional home favorite, might look good on paper, but the reality is that small samples are just as likely to reverse course over the next 15 games as they are to continue their previous pattern. Sports betting, by nature, involves a high variance. The tradeoff is a high return on investment once you consider other factors and hit the right win percentage compared with your average odds or probability. 

Identifying a Correlation 

NBA betting trends are most valuable for handicapping when backed up by reasons that explain any standout streaks. Trends point a handicapper in the right direction to look for concrete reasons. There might not be reasons to explain trends. In that case, the trend is more of a mathematical anomaly. But many times, there are explanations that serious handicappers can exploit with their NBA picks before oddsmakers make adjustments. 

For instance, a mediocre team might go on an 8-4/9-3 ATS run. Why? What’s happening? Perhaps they're playing a string of home games or they’re facing multiple bad teams. If the upcoming schedule finds they'll be facing four winning teams in a row, they may come back to earth. On the other hand, maybe the coach inserted a rookie point guard into the lineup that helped key that successful run. Or, they went from being a below-average defensive team to one that is now playing very good defense. That tells a handicapper that a team may have turned a corner with a new trend beginning.

Types of NBA Trends Worth Paying Attention

NBA Home/Road Trends

More than any other sport, basketball has the most extreme home/road differences. If a team is 10-10 straight up and against the spread over the last 20 games, that doesn't give much insight beyond that they're a .500 team. However, if they're 9-1 SU/ATS at home and 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS on the road, that's significant information for sports bettors. Young basketball teams often show that tendency, playing their best in front of the home fans but becoming unglued in front of hostile crowds. A lack of defensive effort can also explain it. Offensively, teams will go through cold shooting stretches on the road and can quickly fall behind if they struggle defensively. 

Double-Digit Trends

Betting trends can provide insight into NBA double-digit favorites and underdogs. Double-digit favorites would feature a good team against a weak one. But is the number too high? This is where trends help. Go through the season schedule of the favorite and count how many times they've been in the role of double-digit chalk. Go back to the previous season if you have the time. Patterns often become clear, such as a team is on a 3-10 ATS run as a double-digit favorite. Even big favorites can struggle or lose to underdogs as the talent at the professional level is extraordinary. Some double-digit NBA underdogs will also emerge on 9-2 ATS or 12-6 ATS runs in that role. Take it a step further to see if there are reasons why they're good as a big dog. Maybe the offense has a few good players, but they're a bad defensive team. They might often cover as double-digit road dogs, as the offense keeps them in games, but still lose by 6-to-10 points. Oddsmakers can overvalue and undervalue teams, which becomes apparent when analyzing spread-cover patterns.

NBA Totals Trends

NBA betting trends on totals also provide valuable insight for handicappers. A team may go on runs of 8-3 or 12-4 UNDER the total. That should pique the interest of any handicapper searching for winning plays. Are there reasons a team is playing lower-scoring games than the oddsmakers are projecting? There usually are. A point guard might be injured, and the replacements might not be as good at shooting or taking care of the basketball. A coach may have been frustrated with the team's defense the previous month and has stressed better defense in practice. The coach may be demanding better defensive efforts, or he's shifted personnel around, giving less time to good offensive players and more time to less skilled role players who play physically in the low post and hustle back defensively. 

Beware of the Schedule 

When trying to identify sports wagering value with betting trends, it's a good idea to take NBA scheduling dynamics into account. If a team goes on an 8-2 SU/ATS run, that's an eye-catching trend for bettors. This team is not only winning, but also covering numbers over the last three weeks. However, let's say that nine of those games were at home. It's still an impressive run, but it could be explained by the fact that they've been on long homestands. If they're now heading out on a five-game road trip, their hot play straight-up and against the number might not continue. If they're a consistently weak road team, seeing them go 0-5 SU/ATS on the trip wouldn't be a surprise. That impressive 8-2 SU/ATS run is suddenly 8-7 SU/ATS....not so impressive. 

NBA Moneyline Trends 

Basketball bettors can get immersed in spread trends, but don't overlook NBA moneyline options. An NBA team can win a lot of games while having a losing spread record. There are likely reasons for this. Maybe the coach consistently rests starters in the fourth quarter with the outcome not in doubt, or perhaps they're not a strong free-throw shooting squad. These give the underdog chances to hang around the number. But trends can show that the moneyline might be a better option. When matched against teams of equal caliber, the moneyline can be small, such as a -125 favorite. In addition, check betting trends for how a team performs in the role of underdog. A team can be 20-20 straight up on the season but 10-6 in the role of underdog. They're money-burners when favored but money-makers when getting points and plus-moneylines. 

Undervalued Teams 

Betting trends can reveal when NBA teams are overvalued and undervalued. For instance, a struggling team that is usually a 5-to-8-point underdog suddenly jumps to being a double-digit dog more frequently. Oddsmakers are constantly making adjustments during the basketball season as their power rankings shift. The key is: what do the trends say? If the team went 2-10 against the spread as a 5-to-8 point underdog but 4-2 ATS as a double-digit dog, the wagering value may have shifted. The oddsmaker was right to adjust the lines but has overcompensated. It won't make that much difference to the sportsbooks as winning teams attract more public money than losing ones. But serious NBA handicappers are always on the prowl for edges in each matchup, no matter how small. Little edges are the difference between breaking even, losing, or turning a consistent long-term betting profit. 

The Trend Can Be Your Friend

Betting trends are a tool to point handicappers in different analytical directions. It's up to the handicapper to identify correlations between trends and team play. Coaching and personnel changes may influence a team's play, their defensive intensity (or lack thereof), and how they play as underdogs or double-digit favorites. Situational dynamics like scheduling and how a team plays at home or on the road are also factors to consider. Betting trends help identify soft and strong areas on the court and, ultimately, at the wagering window by covering the spread and getting that payout.

The trend can be your friend when utilized properly. My pro tip: use trends as one tool that signal where it might be worthwhile to look for betting opportunities.

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