Houston Rockets vs Sacramento Kings

Houston finds itself in the middle of a difficult situational stretch. They come off an emotional showdown against Oklahoma City on Sunday, a 119-116 win between the top two teams in the West. Prior to that, the Rockets played overtime games on the road at Minnesota and Philadelphia. Sacramento plays its second straight at home with an offense that is 12th in the NBA in scoring, eighth in field goal shooting, and seventh from the free-throw line while the defense is 15th in shooting allowed. I look for the Kings to take advantage here. Play Sacramento. 

Houston has won and covered both meetings this season with an average margin of victory of 22.5 points. The Rockets have won three of their past four games and are 5-0 ATS their past five games. Houston defeated Portland 123-107 on Friday when Jalen Green scored 27 points and the Rockets erased a 12-point deficit and outscored the Trail Blazers 68-44 in the second half. Sacramento is only 11-17 ATS at home this season and the Kings are 4-6 ATS their past 10 games and they barely got by San Antonio 131-129 as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. The Kings are 1-6 ATS following a win and 1-5 ATS as home favorites of 5.0-10.5 points. Houston is 9-4-1 ATS after winning by double digits their previous game and Sacramento has not covered its past four games as a favorite. Take the Rockets as my Game Of The Month.

Sacramento gets an opportunity to avenge Saturday's loss to the Rockets in tonight's rematch as the teams are playing a two-game series at Houston. Dillon Brooks scored 12 of his 26 points in the fourth quarter in Houston's 107-89 win two nights ago when the Kings shot just 38.1 percent. The Kings had beaten the Lakers in overtime and then suffered a one-point loss at Golden State before Saturday's game. The Kings' past two games have gone UNDER by an average of 25 points and they are 7-1 UNDER playing on one day of rest. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS its past 17 games after any loss. The Kings are 38-18-1 ATS their past 57 road games and the Rockets are 2-7-1 ATS as underdogs of 0.5-4.5 points. Houston is 21-7 UNDER following a win and 8-3 UNDER its past 11 home games. Take the Kings and the UNDER.

The Sacramento Kings have opened the season 2-2. There are some weaknesses that stand out from those four games. The Kings were out-rebounded in three of them. I'm not overly concerned because they have had a tough schedule to open the season. They have faced Golden St. twice, the Lakers, and the Jazz. The Kings are playing at a high pace, and it has suited them well as they have gotten more shots off than their opponent in all four games. There are some hidden points there. Houston is rebounding worse as the Rockets have not outrebounded any of their four opponents and sit at -10 rebounds per game on the season. Sacramento has the better matchup here. Make the play on Sacramento.