Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers

Denver goes for a gentleman's sweep as it allowed the Lakers a win in Game 4, but now the Nuggets go back home where they are 35-8 this season and Los Angeles is 19-23-0 ATS on the road. It was the first win for the Lakers against the Nuggets in 12 games dating to December 2022. It was the first game in the series not to stay UNDER and seven of the past 10 meetings have gone UNDER. Nikola Jokic recored a triple-double despite the loss with 33 points, 14 assists and 14 rebounds. Denver is 11-5 UNDER as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and the Lakers have gone UNDER five of their past six first round games. Los Angeles is 1-7 ATS after a win of more than 10 points and 8-20 ATS its past 28 playoff games as an underdog. Denver is 17-7 ATS following a double-digit loss. Take the Nuggets and the first half to stay UNDER as a Max Play.

Denver's defense was sixth in the NBA during the regular season in points given up (109.6 per game), fourth in shooting allowed (46.2%), and eighth at defending beyond the arc. The Nuggets have held the Lakers to 102.3 points per game while going up 3-0 in this series. That's almost 16 points less than L.A.'s season average. Denver is 43-31 UNDER the total as a favorite, 34-23 UNDER after a victory, and 29-16 UNDER versus winning teams. They're also 21-12 UNDER the First Half Total after allowing 105 points or less. Los Angeles won't have its top two offensive threats at 100% in Anthony Davis (wrist injury) and LeBron James (ankle). The Lakers are 30-21 UNDER the total against winning teams, plus 22-7 UNDER the First Half Total as a home dog and 63-35 UNDER the First Half Total in the first round of the playoffs. Take the First-Half UNDER as a Max Play and the full game UNDER. 

The Los Angeles Lakers must be totally demoralized as they just can't seem to come out on the winning end against the Nuggets, who have won the past 11 meetings. The last time the Lakers beat them was April 10, 2022. It will especially be difficult to recover from Tuesday's heartbreaker when LeBron James missed a 3-pointer and then Jamal Murray hit a jumper as time expired to give Denver a 101-99 victory to go up 2-0 in the series. The game went UNDER by 23 points and five of the past six meetings have gone UNDER. The Lakers are 2-5 ATS and 5-2 UNDER their past seven playing with two days rest. Denver is 16-6 UNDER on the road versus teams with .600 home winning percentages and 49-34-1 UNDER overall this season. Denver has experience in this situation and it won't have a letdown as the Nuggets swept the Lakers in four games in the 2023 playoffs. Play the Nuggets, and make it a Max Play on the UNDER.