Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has the sixth-best scoring differential (+2.1) in the Western Conference. They have big bodies up front in Rudy Gobert (10.6 rpg) and Julius Randle (20 ppg, 6.9 rpg) on a defense that is fourth in the NBA in points allowed, ninth in shooting allowed, and sixth at defending the 3-pointer. They're a strong free-throw shooting team (11th at 78.8%). This is just the third time they've been an underdog. Dallas ranks 25th in the NBA from the charity stripe. Luka Doncic returned to the lineup in the last game after missing two straight with a heel contusion. Counting last year's playoff series between these teams, the underdog has covered seven of the last nine meetings. Play Minnesota. 

Minnesota finally figured out how to play 48 minutes against the Mavericks after leading in the final five minutes of every game in the series. Also, Karl-Anthony Towns got his shooting touch back and was 9 of 13 from the field after shooting just 28 percent the first three games. Now the Timberwolves head home for Game 5 with some confidence and momentum and they faced similar adversity in the Denver series and won Games 6 and 7 by playing great defense. They did the same on Tuesday as Luka Doncic got his points, but he and Kyrie Irving were just 13 of 39 for 33 percent from the field. Minnesota is in desperation mode while the Mavericks know they have another home game in hand to clinch the series. Take the Timberwolves - Max Play. 

Dallas has shown it knows how to close out games while the Timberwolves stumble down the stretch similar to what Indiana has been doing against Boston in their series. It also helps having Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on your side as they scored 33 points apiece and the Mavericks took a 3-0 series lead with a 116-107 victory in Game 3. Dallas finished with a 12-3 run as Irving's playoff experience with Cleveland has guided the Mavericks to victories throughout the postseason. The game went OVER by 15.5 points and all three games in the series have gone OVER and the Mavericks have gone OVER four in a row. Dallas won't be interested in a gentleman's sweep and it won't take any chances especially with center Dereck Lively II questionable with a head and neck injury and who may need some extra time off before the next series. Take the Mavericks and the OVER.