Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors

The Boston Celtics are off a home loss in overtime to the Atlanta Hawks. They are still 29-13 in the season, projected to be just under 60 wins. This puts Boston in a historically good spot. Teams tend to show out after a home favorite loss in overtime and play their next game as a road favorite. These NBA teams cover 53.5% of their next game. Better than that is if these same teams come into the game with a winning percentage of less than .730, they are an impressive 66-45 ATS, covering just shy of 60% of all games. The Warriors continue their decline, and if the playoffs started today, they would not even be in the play-in round. History points to a play on Boston.

Golden State plays its third straight road game a long way from home, and Stephen Curry is battling an ankle injury. He's missed three of the last four, playing 24 minutes in the last game at Washington. Defending champion Boston has won seven of eight despite playing six of the last seven on the road. The Celtics are sixth in the league at defending the 3-pointer and 12th in points allowed, while the offense is No. 1 in scoring and eighth from long range (37.3%). Boston is on a 39-4 straight-up run at home in the regular season. Play Boston on the moneyline.

Golden State is ninth in the NBA in field goal shooting allowed (46.7%) and sixth at defending the 3-pointer on a 13-3 run UNDER the total. The Warriors are 21-10 UNDER after a game where they covered. Boston is sixth in points given up (110.2 per game), second in field goal shooting allowed (44.8%), and third at defending beyond the arc. The Celtics are 26-13 UNDER the total at home versus teams that hit 36%+ from area code three in the second half of the season. And NBA games featuring two teams with rebounding margins between +3 to +5.5 go 86-54 UNDER the total. Take Golden State/Boston UNDER the total. 

Boston gets an opportunity to get payback at home for its 123-107 loss at Golden State in December and also after losing to the Warriors in the NBA Finals last season. The Celtics are clearly in better form, winning seven in a row including the last three on the road, and sweeping a two-game set with Charlotte culminating with Jayson Tatum exploding for 51 points against the Hornets on Monday as the game went OVER by 17.5 points. The Warriors have lost four of their past six games and five of them went OVER, including the last four. Golden State is just 5-17 on the road and Boston is 17-5 at home. The Warriors allow 123.4 points per game on the road and the Celtics average 122.0 points at home. Take the Celtics on the moneyline and the OVER.