Runlines are baseball's version of the point spread betting, where the favorites are posted as -1.5 runs. And while moneyline betting is the most common form in baseball—where you simply try and predict the winner—understanding how run line betting in baseball works is crucial for your success.
Betting on the favorite on the runline means they have to win by two or more runs. The Dodgers MLB team might be -200 on the moneyline but -135 on the runline. Backing the run line bet on baseball means risking less money bet ($135 to win $100), but to collect, the MLB favorite has to win by two runs or more, such as 4-2 or 7-3. If the Dodgers win 3-2, the moneyline baseball bets will cash, but the runline is a losing ticket.
Assessing MLB Run Line Betting Value
Identifying matchup edges in baseball run line betting requires careful study and time. From a MLB handicapping perspective, a run line favorite are assessed by the likelihood of a one-sided game and the actual run line odds. The favorite would have to have multiple things in their favor beyond just the starting pitcher. The favorite might have a more reliable or rested bullpen and some significant offensive advantages. These could be a high on-base percentage and a good chance to manufacture some extra runs with speed on the bases, matched up against a below-average defensive catcher.
In addition, the MLB odds need to merit a play on the runline compared to the moneyline. Betting odds change all the time. An opening moneyline favorite of -180 might be bet up to -200 while the runline of -125 might shift to -135. The changes reflect money coming in on the favorite. In that example, a handicapper would conclude there's not much difference. However, if the money line favorite gets bet up from -180 to -200 while the runline doesn't move and is still sitting at -125, the runline odds offer better value. The next step is to assess if the favorite is likely to win the game by one run or more than one run.
Runline Dogs: Two Chances to Cash in MLB Betting!
Runline dogs offer a unique sports betting strategy. The baseball run line underdog is listed as + 1.5 runs. Here, the baseball bettors or run line bettors has two chances to cash: If the underdog wins the baseball game or if the dog lose by less than one run. As a leading industry handicapper, I can attest that these are more value-oriented runline wagers. First, there are two chances to cash - an upset or a one-run loss. Second, many MLB games and ballpark factors help identify a likely close final score. A pair of strong starters and bullpens could be facing off, with a realistic outcome of a 3-2 or 2-1 final.
Other MLB Run Line Factors: Ballparks & Weather
MLB parks in Detroit, Seattle, Cleveland, San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland, San Francisco, and Dodger Stadium are difficult to hit home runs in. Wind is a factor in many of them. For instance, a game in San Francisco with the wind blowing in will be rough on hitters, increasing the chances of a close, low-scoring final.
October playoff baseball can feature cooler, windy conditions and above-average pitchers facing each other. A 3-2 final wouldn't be a surprise, making the runline underdog an attractive wager. Runlines, like parlays, should be used sparingly. Most baseball picks should be moneylines and totals with a sprinkling of runlines if the matchups and value dictate. I provide write-ups on every MLB pick, so when I release a runline, you can understand the reasoning behind the favorite or the underdog to help improve your betting decisions and win the bet.
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