Washington at Philadelphia

This one looks so easy on the surface as the Nats have been horrible while the Phil's are getting ready to defend their World Series title from a year ago. That is until you conider that late in the season, the moneyline prices begin to go through the roof, and here are the Phillies at -300. That also effects the runline price here and it is where the value gets enlarged. Cole Hamels is a solid pitcher, but looking at the Phillies' 28 games he has started, their 15-13 record is less than the team has achieved, percentage wise, on the season. When you factor in that if Hamels was on the mound to a would be -1.5 runline, the Phillies would drop from 15-13, to a woeful 8-20. That is because of the Phillies' 15 wins on the season with him on the mound, they have won seven of them by a single run. That -1.5 runline record then moves to 8-20 and laying odds in the process. The Nats have lost 22 games by a single run, netting them at 72-73 if they were playing the season at +1.5. So a closer look at this one shows the Phillies 8-20 or 28.5% winners with Hammels facing a -1.5 runline, and the Nats at a 50-50 proposition. The difference is that we are getting in here with a positive expectation, as the underdog on the runline. I'll go with the Nats on the runline here.