Washington at New York

It's been a disappointing season for the Mets who, despite the fifth-highest payroll in baseball, have a sub-.500 record to show for it. But, they have a chance to end on a high note, completing a sweep of the Nationals. I think they do it behind the arm of Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey owns a 2.92 ERA t at home. When he has started here at home, the Mets are 13-5 this season. Meanwhile when Livan Hernandez toes the mound on the road, the Nats are just 5-9. Sure, the Mets have struggled to score all season, but no matter today. Over their past seven games, the Nats have managed just 1.4 runs per game. Ugh. Over the past three seasons, Washington is just 16-40 on the road vs. low-scoring NL teams (under 4.4 runs per game) over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, the Mets are 22-5 over that same span in post All-Star game play at home vs. NL teams that score in that range. As a road dog of +100 to +150 this season, the Nationals are 9-28. I like the Mets here.