Washington at Cincinnati

The Nats have not been a good road team in many years, and their recent play changes nothing. They are 1-7 in their last eight on the road and have produced three or less runs in six of them, which has always been their problem. They have dropped the first two here, totaling just three runs in the two games. At 24-19 Cincinnati remains a quality club at home. Tim Redding pitched well for the Nats through May, but has since regressed back to more of what you'd expect, raising his ERA to 5.19. The Reds get their third in a row against the Nats in this one. We also like the UNDER here as Washington averages 3.6 per game (3.3 against RHP) and Cincinnati averages 4.3 per game. Josh Fogg can and will break out of his doldrums vs. this Nats club. Redding is 16-4 UNDER in his last 20 against teams with a losing record in second-half play. He's also 12-3 UNDER the past two seasons at +125 to -125. Fogg is 2-1 UNDER in his last 13 against NL teams that average under 3.9 runs per game.