Washington at Atlanta

Washington is a big dog here, but is not playing as badly as this current skid might suggest, losing by 1 run in two of the last six games and 2 runs in a pair of them. Prior to this skid they won four of five games, including twice as a dog of +120 and +185. Reliable veteran Livan Hernandez goes here, with few walks allowed and a solid 3.31 ERA against the Braves in 16 innings this season, allowing 18 hits and only one free pass. Washington is 5-1 the last six times in game one of a series, as well as 4-1 the last five times Hernandez has opened up a series. Atlanta has no urgency to play well, as they’ve pretty much locked-up a wild card slot. They’ve lost two of the last three games - all as a favorite, including a 6-0 defeat the last game, ending a long road trip. This offense ranks just No. 17 in baseball in runs scored and No. 24 in on-base percentage. Starter Jair Jurrjens had a great start to the season, but is not the same pitcher with a 1-2 record and a 5.19 ERA his last three starts. Play the Washington Nationals. Also take the OVER here. Washington averages just 3.8 runs per game on the season overall, but vs. right-handed pitchers, that climbs to 4.0. In night games, they average 4.1 per game. And, in division games, the Nats are 30-17 OVER on the season. When facing teams this year that allow less than 3.9 runs per game, Washington is 20-15 to the OVER including 15-5 in their last 20. And, as a big road dog (+150 or greater), they are 15-5 OVER this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 13-3 OVER this season after a big loss by 5+ runs. Take the Nats and the OVER here.