Washington at Arizona

We faded the D-Backs yesterday and scored with the Giants at +180. We'll fade Arizona again today at a very hefty price. Arizona is in a rut. They were swept by the lowly Giants and have lost four straight and eight of their last ten. They are facing a pitcher that is 6-3 with a 3.59 ERA. On the road, Redding's ERA is 2.37! So why is Arizona favored so heavily today? Is Micah Owings that good? No. Like Redding, the rest of the Nationals team plays better on the road than at home. They get 4.0 runs per game away from home vs. 3.6 at home. Yes, Arizona has the better offense but right now they just aren't playing well. Redding is 10-3 the past two seasons vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game. The Nats are 7-1 this season with him on the mound as an underdog. We sniff a lot of value on the Nats here at this price.