Toronto at Texas

Toronto had the No. 1 offense in baseball this season, but don't forget they had a starting staff with three of the four best ERAs in the American League following the All-Star break. You need pitching to get this far in the baseball season, and both these teams have it. Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA ERA) had a 2.78 ERA after the All-Star break, which ranked second, and his 0.91 WHIP paced all AL starters. Toronto is 3-1-1 UNDER the total when Estrada starts on the road, plus 7-3 UNDER when he faces a team with a winning record. Texas has a strong bullpen, and starter Martin Perez posted a 3.38 ERA over his final 11 starts and surrendered three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 14 starts in 2015. The team is on a 4-1 run UNDER the total when he starts at home, plus 19-7 UNDER when he faces a winning team. The Texas offense could use 3B Adrian Beltre (back), who sat out Game 2 and remains day-to-day. When these teams meet in this park, the UNDER is 8-2, so look for more defense and pitching depth than oddsmakers anticipate. Play Game 3 of this series UNDER the total.